題 目： Decision-making in safety investment interval: An improved basic safety investment decision model
主講人：趙秋紅
時 間：2017年12月14日 上午8：30
地 點：主樓216房間
主講人介紹：
趙秋紅，女，北京航空航天大學經濟偉德國際1946bv官網教授，博士生導師，北京航空航天大學學術委員會委員，中國系統工程學會常務理事、副秘書長、應急管理專業委員會主任委員、服務系統工程分會副主任委員；中國運籌學會行為運作管理分會常務理事；中國物流學會理事；城市安全運行與應急保障北京市國際科技合作基地主任。趙秋紅教授主要從事系統優化、物流與供應鏈管理、安全與風險管理等領域的理論與實踐研究工作，先后主持5項國家自然科學基金項目（1項在研），已發表SCI 源期刊論文20余篇，出版論著5部。
內容介紹：
Safety investment is a periodically work and it affects the safety condition of the company significantly. We consider the safety investment decision problem from a perspective of investment interval. Through describing safety investment amount and accident probability as a function of investment interval, an improved basic safety investment decision model is proposed. The model shows that the positive effect of safety investment amount on safety performance only exists when investment interval is shorter than a certain value. This finding explains the inconclusive results on the causal relationship between safety investment amount and safety performance found by many previous researches. The numerical analysis indicates that a short-term decision helps to reduce the accident probability. The failure frequency of the company’s safety system decreases the optimal investment interval significantly. The risk rating of the company does not affect the company’s safety investment decision. While the higher the loss brought by an accident is, the shorter the optimal investment interval and the lower the accident probability. The government can reduce accident probability through increasing the penalty cost, which is included in the accident loss. The findings help the company to make decision in safety investment from a novel perspective.
（承辦：管理工程系，科研與學術交流中心）
