題目：Disconfirmation Effect on Online Rating Behavior: A Dynamic Analysis
主講人：譚勇 教授（美國華盛頓大學）
時間：2015.7.15（周三）上午10:00
地點：主樓317
主講人簡介：
譚勇教授是美國華盛頓大學福斯特商學院信息和運營管理Neal and Jan Dempsey講席教授，清華大學長江學者講座教授，《信息系統研究》（Information Systems Research）資深編輯（Senior Editor），《管理信息系統期刊》(Journal of Management Information Systems)編委，《電子商務研究期刊》（Journal of Electronic Commerce Research）資深編輯。現從事電子商務，大數據，社會傳媒，網絡經濟，信息系統等方面的研究。在《Management Science》,《Information Systems Research》,《MIS Quarterly》等國際頂尖期刊上發表多篇論文。曾獲多項學術和教學獎勵，包括信息系統協會最佳論文獎,Lex N. Gamble電子商務研究杰出獎，杰出博導獎等。于2007年被邀請至運籌學和管理學研究協會年會（INFORMS）做關于社會網絡研究方法的主題報告。多年擔任《管理科學》（Management Science）等國際頂尖期刊副編輯。是運籌學和管理學研究協會2010年信息系統和技術分會共同主席和2012年信息系統部主席，以及2014年信息技術和系統研討會共同主席。指導和培養的博士生現在卡內基梅隆大學，普渡大學，印第安納大學等著名高校任教，和在微軟等著名企業從事研究開發工作。
內容簡介：
This research studies the effect of “disconfirmation”—the discrepancy between the expected and experienced quality of the same product—on the behavior of consumers leaving product reviews in an online setting. Specifically, we posit that an individual’s pre-purchase expectation is driven by the product ratings she observes and the credibility of the review system she perceives at the time of purchases. Upon product consumption, the individual obtains post-purchase evaluation and uses this information to confirm/disconfirm with her expectation. We extend the Bayesian learning framework to model the individual perception of the system credibility as how closely the ex-ante expectation matches the ex-post evaluation. Incorporating such dynamic perception in raters’ decisions allows us to better understand the chance of consumer engagement in sharing product experience over time. We estimate the proposed model using a rich data set comprising compete purchasing and rating activities made by 361 individuals on an e-commerce website. Our results show that consumer participation in leaving product reviews is subject to the disconfirmation effect. The further an individual’s post-purchase evaluation deviates from her pre-purchase expectation, the more likely she is to express her own opinions about the product. Our results also show that online consumers tend to be less active with respect to posting reviews as they perceive the system to be more precise over time. From simulations, we highlight 1) the dissimilar effects of disconfirmation and experienced quality on consumer rating behavior; 2) various evolutionary patterns of product ratings over time; and 3) the effect of fake, inflated ratings on subsequent rating entries.
（主辦：管理工程系）
